Interactive tool to map inputs → activities → outputs → outcomes → impact
Learn to measure what matters and demonstrate your nonprofit’s true impact
What is a Theory of Change?
A theory of change is your roadmap that shows how your program creates meaningful change in participants’ lives. It maps the logical pathway from your activities to your ultimate goals, helping you understand not just what you do, but how and why it works.
Strategic Planning
Better Evaluation
Communication & Funding
The Pathway
Supporting Elements
Understanding these concepts is essential for building an effective theory of change.
Start with the end in mind
Begin by clearly defining your ultimate outcome – the long-term change you want to see in participants’ lives or your community. Then work backward, asking “What needs to happen right before this?” Continue until you reach your activities.
Uncover your beliefs about how change happens
Assumptions are the beliefs you hold about what makes your program work. They’re often unstated but critical to your success. Making them explicit helps you test whether they’re valid.
Identify everyone who influences your success
Change rarely happens in isolation. Other people and organizations play important roles in whether participants achieve outcomes. Map these stakeholders to understand how to engage them.
Acknowledge what’s outside your control
Many factors beyond your program influence whether participants achieve outcomes. Recognizing these helps you plan for challenges and opportunities.
Your theory of change is a hypothesis to test
Don’t expect to get your theory perfect on the first try. Use evaluation data, stakeholder feedback, and program experience to continually refine your understanding of how change happens.
Step 1 of 6: Program Overview
Work backward from your ultimate outcome. What needs to happen right before participants achieve your long-term goal?
6-18 months
3-6 months
What you do
What beliefs do you hold about how change happens in your program? What needs to be true for your pathway to work?
Who are the key people and organizations that influence whether participants achieve your outcomes?
Direct program participants
Family, friends, employers
Partners, funders, leaders
Government, media, broader community
What factors outside your control could help or hinder participants’ progress? Being aware of these helps you plan for opportunities and challenges.
See how different nonprofits structure their theories of change.
Ultimate Outcome: Disadvantaged youth gain stable employment and economic independence
Medium-term Outcomes:
Short-term Outcomes:
Key Activities: Skills training, mentorship, internship placements, job search support
Key Assumptions: Young people are motivated to work; employers will hire program graduates; job market has opportunities for entry-level workers
Ultimate Outcome: Adults achieve educational and economic goals that improve family well-being
Key Activities: Small group instruction, individualized tutoring, goal setting, family engagement
Key Assumptions: Adults can learn at any age; family support increases persistence; improved literacy leads to better opportunities
Ultimate Outcome: Community members adopt healthy behaviors that reduce chronic disease
Key Activities: Health education workshops, cooking classes, walking groups, health screenings
Key Assumptions: Knowledge leads to behavior change; peer support increases motivation; accessible programming reduces barriers
Ultimate Outcome: Long-term unemployed adults achieve career stability and economic self-sufficiency
Key Activities: Skills assessment, career coaching, technical training, employer partnerships, job placement
Key Assumptions: Skills training addresses employment barriers; employer partnerships provide job opportunities; intensive support leads to retention
Ultimate Outcome: Formerly incarcerated individuals successfully reintegrate into society and avoid recidivism
Key Activities: Case management, job training, housing assistance, counseling services, mentorship programs
Key Assumptions: Comprehensive support reduces recidivism; employers will hire ex-offenders; stable housing enables employment success
Ultimate Outcome: Recent immigrants achieve economic integration and become self-sufficient community members
Key Activities: English classes, job search workshops, credential assistance, cultural orientation, networking events
Key Assumptions: Language skills enable employment; credential recognition increases job opportunities; cultural orientation improves workplace success
Ultimate Outcome: Low-income women achieve financial independence and career advancement opportunities
Key Activities: Leadership training, financial literacy classes, career coaching, networking opportunities, childcare assistance
Key Assumptions: Leadership skills lead to career advancement; removing barriers enables participation; peer networks provide ongoing support
Ultimate Outcome: Adults with disabilities achieve competitive integrated employment and workplace inclusion
Key Activities: Vocational assessment, skills training, job coaching, employer education, workplace accommodations
Key Assumptions: Appropriate support enables employment success; employers value diverse talent; accommodations lead to job retention
Helpful tools and guides for developing and refining your theory of change.
Comprehensive online resource with guides, examples, and tools for developing theories of change.
Step-by-step methodology for creating theories of change with practical worksheets and examples.
Practical guide from FSG with templates and case studies for social sector organizations.
Practical, hands-on guide to developing theories of change with group exercises and facilitation tips.
Collection of resources and case studies on developing effective theories of change for nonprofits.
Additional evaluation resources and tools from leading foundations and evaluation experts.
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